A fifth of people deemed at risk of poverty in eight-year period, says study

Almost a fifth of people were deemed at risk of poverty at least once between 2015 and 2023, according to a study.

The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) published research examining the complexities of income poverty and deprivation and how they intertwine.

On average, 22% of the population experienced deprivation at least once in two consecutive years from 2016 to 2023: almost half of these were in persistent deprivation, slightly less than a third were exiting deprivation and about a quarter were entering deprivation.

The study noted that there was a post-pandemic spike observed amongst lone-parent families, 30 to 65-year-old single people, adults above 65, and especially amongst single people over 65.

It said the stronger effect for the older population could be explained by the fact that the State pension was frozen in cash terms in 2020 and 2021.

The ESRI report, published in partnership with the Department of Social Protection, used longitudinal data from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) – the study explores the dynamics of poverty.

It found that the annual at-risk-of-poverty (AROP) rate declined from 16% in 2016 to 11% in 2023, while the persistent AROP rate declined from 10% in 2015-2016 to 7% in 2022-2023.

The latter shows the share of the population who were AROP two years in a row.

Material deprivation increased in the recent period from 14% in 2021 to 17% in 2023.

Over the period 2016 to 2023, an average of 5% of people were both AROP and deprived.

Lone parent families, large families, and households with a working-age adult with a disability faced the highest risks of persistent AROP and deprivation, it said.

Children in lone parent families, in particular, are most at risk, with an average 33% of them being persistently deprived, and 21% being persistently AROP, between 2016 and 2023.

The report said that implementing “targeted” policy measures to support lone parents, large families, and households with a person with disabilities is essential to help those at high risk of poverty.

It said timely adjustments to social welfare payments, including pensions, would be “critical” to protect vulnerable groups from inflation.

Co-author Anousheh Alamir said the report highlighted “the complex nature of poverty” and how different groups face different risks over various time periods.

“Over two year stretches, lone parent families and households with a disabled adult are found to be the most at risk of income poverty and/or material deprivation for one year only.

“And while they are also the most likely to be materially deprived two years in a row (i.e persistently), large families are the most at risk of income poverty during that time.

“Thus, different groups are vulnerable to different forms and durations of poverty, an insight that should be key for effective policy.”